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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 30

New England Patriots 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP