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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.27 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP