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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread -7.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

LA
64.6%
DEN
35.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Case Keenum (DEN) -0.058 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.252 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LA

Greg Zuerlein K Out right Groin

DEN

Adam Jones CB Questionable Thigh
Jared Veldheer T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 23
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 FG LA (11:27) 3-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 04:25 FG LA (4:25) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:07 FG DEN (:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. LA 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:02 TD LA (11:02) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – DEN 3
  • Q3 06:13 TD LA (6:13) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – DEN 3
  • Q3 01:40 TD DEN (1:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – DEN 9
  • Q4 08:57 FG DEN (8:57) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. LA 20 – DEN 13
  • Q4 03:19 FG LA (3:19) 3-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 23 – DEN 13
  • Q4 01:27 TD DEN (1:27) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 88-De.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to LA 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell; 81-T.Patrick).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (11:27) 3-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 21%

    (8:55) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LA 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 89%

    (4:25) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (11:02) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 41%

    (8:02) 3-C.Wadman punts 30 yards to LA 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (4:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 54%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at 50 for -11 yards (20-L.Joyner).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to DEN 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DEN 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (10:19) 3-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (8:57) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (3:19) 3-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.