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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 3-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP