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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 3-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP