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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYG 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model