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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Thursday 2018-10-11 · 20:20 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
57.0%
NYG
43.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.068 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

D.J. Alexander LB Out Quadricep
Nathan Gerry LB Out Ankle
Corey Graham S Out Hamstring
Haloti Ngata DT Out Calf
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Lane Johnson T Questionable Ankle

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Knee
Russell Shepard WR Out Neck
Rhett Ellison TE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
NYG 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:27 TD PHI (13:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-52-A.Ogletree, Illegal Contact, declined. PHI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 10:09 FG NYG (10:09) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 7 – NYG 3
  • Q1 01:32 TD PHI (1:32) (Shotgun) 30-C.Clement left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYG 3
  • Q2 05:48 FG NYG (5:48) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 14 – NYG 6
  • Q2 04:28 TD PHI (4:28) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYG 6
  • Q2 01:34 FG PHI (1:34) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 24 – NYG 6
  • Q3 08:45 TD PHI (8:45) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – NYG 6
  • Q3 06:19 TD NYG (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 31 – NYG 12
  • Q4 14:56 FG PHI (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 34 – NYG 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (10:09) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (7:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to PHI 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter pushed ob at NYG 44 for 23 yards (57-N.Stupar).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to PHI 20 for 2 yards (80-J.Davis).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYG 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to PHI 14 for 3 yards (30-A.Hamilton, 55-R.Armstrong).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to NYG 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 33. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 32 for -1 yards (30-C.Clement; 88-D.Goedert).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (5:48) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to 50 for 19 yards (36-S.Chandler).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (1:34) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (:28) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 18.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NYG 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 37 for 9 yards (88-D.Goedert).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham (31-J.Mills).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to NYG 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 10 for -8 yards (83-J.Perkins).