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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 81

New York Giants 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter to 50 for 19 yards (36-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model