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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.82 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP