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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 34

New York Giants 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(:28) 2-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model