4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model