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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 67

New York Giants 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to PHI 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model