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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 5

New York Giants 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham (31-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model