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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 15

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model