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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model