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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 84

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to PHI 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-D.Carter pushed ob at NYG 44 for 23 yards (57-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model