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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.51 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.00 EP