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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

PIT
49.7%
CIN
50.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PIT

Morgan Burnett S Out Groin
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Ankle
L.J. Fort LB Doubtful Ankle

CIN

Giovani Bernard RB Out Knee
Tyler Kroft TE Out Foot
Billy Price C Out Foot
William Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Cedric Ogbuehi T Questionable Wrist
John Ross WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
CIN 21

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:41 TD CIN (4:41) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 14:37 TD PIT (14:37) 30-J.Conner left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 01:14 TD PIT (1:14) 30-J.Conner left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:23 TD CIN (:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – CIN 13
  • Q3 06:56 FG PIT (6:56) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – CIN 14
  • Q4 03:35 FG PIT (3:35) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 20 – CIN 14
  • Q4 01:21 TD CIN (1:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – CIN 20
  • Q4 00:15 TD PIT (:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 26 – CIN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (10:58) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to CIN 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 12.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:05) 10-K.Huber punts 62 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:07) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CIN 46, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%

    (10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:36) 4-J.Berry punts 69 yards to CIN 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 31 for 19 yards (89-V.McDonald). PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18. {Erickson credited with 6 return yards due to the penalty}

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:36) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 25 for 7 yards (45-M.Jefferson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.00 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 52%

    (13:21) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (6:56) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:27) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 24 for 15 yards (50-J.Evans).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 39%

    (:16) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (9:26) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (3:35) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.