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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:16) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model