Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(10:05) 10-K.Huber punts 62 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.99 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model