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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 45-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP