Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: -0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- BUF defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- IND defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Andrew Luck (IND): +0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- IND offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
BUF
IND
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 13:38 TD IND (13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 86-E.Swoope for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – IND 6
- Q2 09:35 TD IND (9:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 25-M.Mack for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – IND 12
- Q2 01:48 TD IND (1:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – IND 20
- Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. BUF 0 – IND 24
- Q3 07:46 FG BUF (7:46) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 3 – IND 24
- Q3 00:25 SAF BUF (:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 9, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. BUF 5 – IND 24
- Q4 13:18 TD IND (13:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 5 – IND 30
- Q4 05:32 TD IND (5:32) 25-M.Mack left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. #7 Brissett at QB. BUF 5 – IND 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 70%
(13:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 45-M.Murphy.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%
(8:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to IND 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(7:03) 2-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%
(3:22) 62-L.Clark reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack left tackle to BUF 43 for 10 yards (23-M.Hyde).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%
(7:46) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to IND 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%
(10:59) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 45-M.Murphy to IND 17 for 3 yards (34-M.Mitchell).
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Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 36%
(6:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.