Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(7:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.15 EP
60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model