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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model