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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Buffalo Bills 5

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.59 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model