Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:03) 2-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.96 EP
50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model