4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to TB 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model