4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

CLE
26.7%
TB
73.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.121 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.139 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

E.J. Gaines CB Out Concussion
Rashard Higgins WR Out Knee
Joe Schobert LB Out Hamstring
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

TB

Vinny Curry DE Out Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Out Calf
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Back
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 23
–
TB 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:22 SAF CLE (9:22) 25-P.Barber left end tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (93-T.Coley). CLE 2 – TB 0
  • Q1 03:04 FG TB (3:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CLE 2 – TB 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 11-D.Jackson left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 2 – TB 9
  • Q2 08:05 TD TB (8:05) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 2 – TB 15
  • Q3 13:08 TD CLE (13:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 8 – TB 16
  • Q3 00:32 TD TB (:32) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – TB 22
  • Q4 12:25 TD CLE (12:25) 63-A.Corbett reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – TB 23
  • Q4 02:36 TD CLE (2:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 22 – TB 23
  • Q5 01:55 FG TB (1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CLE 23 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:40) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to TB 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-27-T.Thomas.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to TB 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (3:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 45 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to TB 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 28%

    (4:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 79 yards to TB 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 10 for 8 yards (54-T.Vallejo). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 1 yard, enforced at TB 2.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to TB 10 for 1 yard (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), ball out of bounds at TB 10.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:10) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to TB 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 27 for 13 yards.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (3:40) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 45-A.Cross to CLE 43 for 6 yards (23-D.Randall).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:41) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (5:02) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 1 for no gain (59-D.Bond).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 95 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:50) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TB 48, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to TB 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Bond).