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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP