Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 79 yards to TB 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 10 for 8 yards (54-T.Vallejo). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 1 yard, enforced at TB 2.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model