4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to TB 10 for 1 yard (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), ball out of bounds at TB 10.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model