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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 45-A.Cross to CLE 43 for 6 yards (23-D.Randall).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model