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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 1
Cleveland Browns 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
What Actually Happened
(5:02) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 1 for no gain (59-D.Bond).
The Three Options
GO
+3.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.25 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
