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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to TB 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model