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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cleveland Browns 2

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model