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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 52

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for 5 yards (56-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model