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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DAL
41.0%
WAS
59.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.090 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
Joe Thomas LB Out Foot
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Ankle

WAS

Jamison Crowder WR Out Ankle
Paul Richardson WR Doubtful Shoulder
Troy Apke S Doubtful Hamstring
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Danny Johnson CB Questionable Forearm
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Calf
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:28 TD WAS (10:28) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 46-K.Bibbs for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 01:07 TD DAL (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 7
  • Q3 09:13 FG WAS (9:13) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 7 – WAS 10
  • Q4 12:38 FG WAS (12:38) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 7 – WAS 13
  • Q4 09:50 FG DAL (9:50) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 10 – WAS 13
  • Q4 05:02 TD WAS (5:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 0 for -10 yards (91-R.Kerrigan). FUMBLES (91-R.Kerrigan) [91-R.Kerrigan], RECOVERED by WAS-94-P.Smith at DAL 1. 94-P.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – WAS 19
  • Q4 01:41 TD DAL (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:38) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to WAS 48, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:26) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 44 for no gain (36-D.Swearinger). FUMBLES (36-D.Swearinger), RECOVERED by WAS-36-D.Swearinger at DAL 45. QB sneak

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (5:59) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to DAL 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 17%

    (1:20) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 19%

    (11:53) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for 5 yards (56-Z.Vigil).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:58) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 17 for 1 yard (48-K.Ladler; 40-J.Harvey-Clemons).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Floyd.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:13) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:44) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 19%

    (4:14) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:32) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 49 for 3 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (12:38) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 75%

    (9:50) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:28) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-S.Perine.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin pushed ob at WAS 44 for 16 yards (35-M.Nicholson). Penalty on WAS-24-J.Norman, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).