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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 56

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 17 for 1 yard (48-K.Ladler; 40-J.Harvey-Clemons).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model