Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(13:38) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to WAS 48, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model