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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 52

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP