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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 7

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model