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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP