Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin pushed ob at WAS 44 for 16 yards (35-M.Nicholson). Penalty on WAS-24-J.Norman, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.23 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP