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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.21 EP
KICK -2.28 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP