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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 36 for 15 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model