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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
Thursday 2018-10-18 · 20:20 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DEN
46.4%
ARI
53.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.210 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DEN: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.125 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.069 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
ARI 22
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DEN

Adam Jones CB Out Thigh
Ronald Leary G Out Achilles
Shane Ray LB Out Ankle
Dymonte Thomas S Out Chest
Jared Veldheer T Out Knee

ARI

Tre Boston S Out Shoulder
Mike Iupati G Out Back
Jeremy Vujnovich G Out Hamstring
Justin Pugh G Questionable Hand
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 45
–
ARI 10

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:10 TD DEN (14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 08:45 TD DEN (8:45) 4-C.Keenum laterals to 10-E.Sanders. 10-E.Sanders pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – ARI 0
  • Q1 05:23 FG ARI (5:23) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. DEN 14 – ARI 3
  • Q1 02:13 TD DEN (2:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 14-J.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 47. 25-C.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – ARI 3
  • Q2 14:51 TD DEN (14:51) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – ARI 3
  • Q2 00:27 TD DEN (:27) 68-E.Wilkinson reported in as eligible. 28-R.Freeman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 34 – ARI 3
  • Q3 08:38 TD ARI (8:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 35 – ARI 9
  • Q3 03:40 TD DEN (3:40) 30-P.Lindsay left tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 41 – ARI 10
  • Q4 05:39 FG DEN (5:39) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. DEN 45 – ARI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:29) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 23 for no gain (30-R.Ford).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (5:23) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on DEN-42-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 36 for 15 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:47) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton. DEN-17-D.Hamilton was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 6.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:42) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (8:21) 3-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:08) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 9 yards (81-T.Patrick).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:02) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 35 for 8 yards (32-D.Coleman).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (15:00) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to ARI 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:14) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 32 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 32 for -8 yards (55-B.Chubb). ARI-3-J.Rosen was injured during the play.