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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 77

Denver Broncos 28 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model