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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.75 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP