Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 74

Denver Broncos 35 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(6:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 9 yards (81-T.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.15 EP
56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model