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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Denver Broncos 42

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 35 for 8 yards (32-D.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model